The First Debate

By Jeff Michaels | September 16th, 2009 - 9:17am
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It is more than 2 weeks away, but I believe the first gubernatorial debate of the general election on October 1st looms large as a potential turning point in the race.

In contests for open seats, debates do little more than reinforce partisan allegiances.  Absent a knock-out punch by one of the candidates, they usually don't move independent or undecided voters to any considerable degree.

In close incumbent races,  however, debates can strongly boost challengers.  On the national level, in 1980, Ronald Reagan started breaking away from incumbent President Carter when voters saw for themselves an "acceptable" alternative to an unpopular incumbent, one who was genial, friendly, and unlikely to fit the stereotype that was being painted of him by the Democratic campaign.

Likewise, JFK's performance against incumbent Vice-President Richard Nixon in the first televised Presidential debate in 1960 was an important ingredient in JFK's strategy of convincing the public he was of "presidential" timbre.  By most accounts, he won the debate among those who watched it on TV, as he compared favorably with Nixon.

The October 1st  debate is important because it will be the first time that incumbent Governor Corzine is exposed to the electorate without the benefit - and crutch - of being shielded by his overwhelming personal bank account advantage.  He will have to face his foes man to man, on the same stage, answering the same questions.

While the race appears to be tightening, challenger Chris Christie seems to hold significant cards.  For one, it is very rare for an incumbent to be re-elected when he polls less than 40 percent so close to the election.  In no public poll has Governor Corzine's share topped 40 percent, in a head-to-head matchup.

Second, the Governor lags Christie by at least 10 points in their own share of their respective political bases.  So while Christie is getting close to 90 percent of Republicans, the Governor is consistently polling under 80 percent of Democrats.  If this continues, Christie will win, because Corzine's underperfomance in his base negates the Democrats' natural voter registration and turnout advantage, and Independent voters, who are overwhelmingly for Christie, will provide his margin of victory.

The GOP challenger will do well in the debate if he:

1.      Reinforces what voters have liked about him.  In politics, the old expression goes, you must "dance with those who brung you to the dance."  What brought Christie to the dance was a well-earned reputation as a no-nonsense corruption-buster who took on the corrupt powerful and brought them to justice.  This is a strength of Christie's that while tarnished somewhat by unforced errors and millions in negative advertising, is still a powerful rationale for his candidacy, and is what is keeping him strong with his Republican base and Independents.  He should use the debate to remind voters of this record.

2.      Contrasts With Corzine.  The election is all about the incumbent.  Contrast the Governor's accommodation of the culture of corruption with your own record.  But stay focused on the pocketbook issues of the economy and taxes.

3.      Be specific.  While a debate is not a policy lecture, it is an opportunity to explain to voters that you have a rational, reasonable set of specific ideas to deal with the most important issues - the economy and taxes. 

4.      Be Yourself.  A relaxed, confident challenger will always score points (Kennedy, Reagan), and most important, will allow voters to see the real person, not the worst stereotypes Goldman Sachs money can buy.

Tags:

won't happen!

Submitted by Opus on September 17, 2009 - 10:59am.

To quote Mr. Michaels, "Be specific. While a debate is not a policy lecture, it is an opportunity to explain to voters that you have a rational, reasonable set of specific ideas to deal with the most important issues - the economy and taxes."

Mr. Christie has not be specific on anything and that is unlikely to change. It is the continuing lack of specificity that will do him in if he doesn't start saying something other than "I'm not the other guy".

Speaking of specifics...

Submitted by ImWithStupid on September 19, 2009 - 9:02am.

Remember these? 1. Corzine would increase property tax rebates 40% in 4 years. 2. Corzine would establish an elected State Comptroller. 3. Corzine would do two-year budgeting. 4. Corzine would not borrow more for schools without voter approval. 5. Corzine would not raise taxes. 6. Corzine would end gimmicks. 7. Corzine would end the culture of corruption. 8. Corzine would get everyone health care at $15 per person. 9. Corzine would be transparent. 10. Corzine would refrain from telling his driver to endanger people's lives by driving him around at 90 mph. (Oh wait, he never promised that.) So what can Corzine do at a debate other than move his mouth while people watch and believe nothing that comes out of his mouth and rightly so. Corzine... his campagin promises are about as sincere as his wedding vows.

By the way Opus...

Submitted by ImWithStupid on September 19, 2009 - 9:12am.

A candidate should spell out his general approach and the direction he will take. Why do you fall into the liberal press' and the inteligencia's insistence that candidates should give detailed plans for everything? That is their code for saying, "Tell us what you will cut right now so we can make hay out of it." A smart leader knows that specifics should be left to good staff around them who embrace their leader's direction and try their best to make it happen - like Reagan. You, of course, are sooooooooo smart and know it all, so you could have a statewide campaign with lots of specifics and you could get all into the weeds and what not. You could impress everyone (or yourself) with how smart you are - and then you would lose badly.

Independent Debate Watch

Submitted by gwenmand on September 23, 2009 - 9:18am.

The NJ Governor debate will be next Thursday 10/1 w/ Corzine, Christie, and independent candidate Chris Daggett and www.independentvoting.org is asking New Jersey voters to participate in a Debate Watch to weigh in on whether you think having an independent in the debate made a difference. Download the survey or take it online at www.independentvoting.org/activistcenter. Invite friends to join you in watching the debate, which will be on all network channels at 8pm or send the survey to friends. Send your surveys back by 10/6 and we'll let you, the media and candidates know what independents and independent-minded voters are thinking.

This is a 3 Way race.

Submitted by Berg1 on October 1, 2009 - 7:37am.

Journalists should not be quick to write off Chris Daggett as a potential winner in this debate (and election) and just comment on how his numbers will affect the election outcome.

In this debate, voters will get to see the comparison of all three candidates .......... in addressing the needs and problems of the state. Checking his online positions, I have found Chris Daggett to be both pragmatic and crystal clear in explaining his postirions.

During the debate, I would expect viewers to see a great contrast between Daggett and the other two candidates in being specific on his goals and unambiguous in addressing the states problems and needs. His pragmatic and clearly expressed positions will most likely win over many voters, not just the independents, but dems and republicans also.

Say no to Christie and Corzine. Vote Daggett

Submitted by alexhiggins732 on October 23, 2009 - 4:39am.

You really have to hand it to Chris Daggett. Not only did he stand toe to toe with Jon Corzine and Chris Christie he really nailed it to them in the 3rd NJ Gubernatorial Debate. Once again, for the third time in a row, I give this as a notch for Daggett.

Chris Daggett handed it to both Christie and Corzine for corruption saying to fight corruption you need to lead by example.

Daggett then cited specific corrupt activities that Christie and Corzine had engaged in, including illegal campaign finance and pay to play, and neither Corzine or Christie could defend themselves.

Instead, Corzine acknowledges that activity is going on and agrees with Daggett that it needs to stop.

Daggett also called for an investigation into $6 Billion missing from the NJ Schools Construction Fund to which Corzine replied he has already put in all of the controls and regulations he could. Christie replied that as governor of NJ he would launch the investigation.

My question to Chris Christie is why didn’t you launch an investigation while you where the US Attorney General for 7 years?

http://njelection.wordpress.com/2009/10/22/chris-daggett-nails-christie-...

4. Be Yourself. A

Submitted by tum3rx on December 25, 2009 - 4:25pm.

4. Be Yourself. A relaxed, confident challenger will always score points (Kennedy, Reagan), and most important, will allow voters to see the real person, not the ktunnel worst stereotypes Goldman Sachs money can buy.

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