Who really won the summer?

By Jeff Michaels | September 1st, 2009 - 6:37am
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Today's Quinnipiac poll follows recent independent surveys (even Democratic ones) showing the same thing - Chris Christie has not relinquished his lead over Governor Jon Corzine.

Despite a 10:1 spending advantage, and weeks of non-stop negative news stories about his challenger, the Governor has not yet broken into the 40's, and continues to trail his opponent.

The Governor's ubiquitous negative advertising has apparently raised Chris Christie's negative ratings, but have done nothing to move any voters other than hard-core Democrats into the Corzine camp. 

At some point, does this advertising cease to be helpful?  In a recent Quinnipiac poll in New York City, by a margin of 59-31, NYC voters think the massive Mike Bloomberg re-election media campaign is more "annoying" than informative.

While he is leading his opponent, his ads are starting to be perceived as "overkill" by voters. 

Could this be happening in New Jersey, especially for a Governor who is trailing his opponent and not as well-liked as Mayor Bloomberg?

It's happened before, not coincidentally perhaps, to Jon Corzine.  In August, 2000, according to the Quinnipiac poll at the time, Corzine led his opponent, Bob Franks by 7 points, while Al Gore was leading George Bush by 14 points.

On Election Day, Gore won by the same 14 points, but Corzine squeaked a bare margin of less than 3 points.  Corzine spent $65 million to win that Senate seat, against Franks' $5 million, and there was Corzine-fatigue among voters at the magnitude of the advertising.

One might say that Corzine's team in 2000 lost the campaign, because they started with a lead, and out-spent their opponent $65 million to $ 5 million, yet still needed Gore's coattails to eke out a win.

Christie is not out of the woods by any means.  Indeed, his increased negative ratings put the Governor in a position to be perceived as the lesser of two evils, if the Governor's campaign plays its cards correctly, which apparently is the only strategy left to him.

What of the Christie campaign? First, he would do well to remain true to himself and the message that won him a contested primary, and has earned him a solid lead, despite the odds.

He and his team should always listen to good ideas and advice, but not pay too much attention to "observers" like Paul Mulshine, who does more every day to elect Jon Corzine than Jamie Fox, or to former GOP elected officials who hitched their star to the wagon of Chris's primary opponent and never got off as that wagon went into the ditch.

He should continue to present himself as an honest, strong leader who is unafraid to make the tough decisions to get New Jersey back on the right track. 

Give me a break

Corzine's relentless negative advertising hasn't raised Chrsitie's negatives -- Christie has.

For some reason the right wants to pretend that all the stuff out there -- Paul Mulshine's columns asking when Christie will present a plan he promised for March, Lonegan's people slamming Christie, the article here yesterday that quoted Jay Webber saying Christie wasn't running as a Republican, the NJN story about a questionable loan to a subordinate, the Star Ledger story that Christie failed to report income on disclosure forms or pay taxes on them, the 101.5 stories about the use of his federal ID during a traffic stop -- are somehow all plots hatched up by the Corzine campaign.

The fact is that Chris Christie has issues, the biggest being that he spent seven years pretending to be a perfect reformer when it turns out he, too, is flawed. It's not a bad thing to be flawed, but it is a bad thing to have the truth go against your image in politics. It's a bad thing to be shown to be a hypocrite.

The more the people of NJ get to know Christie, the less they like him. That's not saying he can't or won't win since Corzine has the same or worse problem.

But blaming the negatives on the Corzine campaign is like blaming the cable company for that the nightly news. It's not just disingenuous, it's pathetic.

Summer Elections Dont Count

Christie won the summer? Why? Because he has somehow clawing onto his lead? What Christie lost was the opportunity to solidify his support. Instead, we have seen a slow erosion going to Daggett. These voters are most likely republicans and like minded independents.

Unfortunately, elections are won after labor day, not before. Oddly, your advice is for Christie to continue to do what he has been doing, which is nothing.

As for the "campaign that went into the ditch", the vote was Christie 160K and Lonegan 130K. Christie only got 160K and that was with all the party support behind him. A good chunk of that 130K will not vote for Christie. Christie has done nothing to bring us out to vote for him this November. And Christie cant afford to lose one vote. Christie is not a Republican. I intend on writing in Lonegan.

"A good chunk of that 130K

"A good chunk of that 130K will not vote for Christie."

So what? If every Looneygan voter does not vote for Christie it only means that instead of beating Corzine by ten percent of the vote, Christie beats him by five percent.

Stay home and cry in your kool-aid.

http://christiegonewild.blogspot.com/

Stupid potshot at Mulshine

"He and his team should...not pay too much attention to 'observers' like Paul Mulshine, who does more every day to elect Jon Corzine than Jamie Fox..."

Really, Mr. Michaels? You're criticizing Paul Mulshine for criticizing both candidates in this election? Believe it or not, the duty of the press is supposedly to call it like it is, or (in the case of a columnist like Mulshine) to call it like they see it. I'm glad Paul Mulshine is using his column to attack both sides for their deep flaws, and dismayed that you can't understand that Mulshine's job isn't to get Christie elected -- it's to write columns about New Jersey politics from a conservative perspective and call it like he sees it. The only reason you're taking potshots at Mulshine is that he recognized the fact that Christie doesn't have a property tax plan or a good campaign strategy. Mulshine's perspective -- which is what he's paid to give, as opposed to being hired to cheerlead for Christie -- is that somehow the NJ GOP managed to put up a candidate every bit as bad as our walking disaster of a governor. If Chris Daggett wasn't running, I don't know who I'd vote for this November.

Spare Me

Mulshine criticizes both candidates? You must not read his columns regularly. His one-sided attacks on Chris Christie reveal some kind of fixation that is kind of odd. He rarely criticizes Corzine and always attacks Christie. I stand by my comment.

"Rarely criticizes Corzine"?!

On the contrary, sir, I've read every one of Mulshine's columns in the Star-Ledger in the last few years; I can't remember the last time I missed one.

Sure, Mulshine doesn't like Christie, but he's certainly not alone among Republicans who dislike their nominee. You must not read Mulshine's columns regularly, because if you did you would know that he's been intensely critical of Gov. Corzine and his administration not just this year but for the three preceding years as well.

"Rarely criticizes Corzine"? Give me a break.

Mulshine

In my opinion he is a Lonegan hack. Get over it and move already. I though he was considering North Carolina or something the day after the primary.

Seperately, in the paper today, there is something about Democrats going after Christie's driving record. Too rich. Wasn't Corzine the guy flying down the highway on the passenger side with no seat belt and zillions of miles an hour? Corzine is the guy who seems to have a seperate set of rules.

Christie's summer of content.

As the crime fighting duo of Chris Christie and Kim Guadagno hit the Jersey Shore one last time before the real campaign begins, it has been a good summer for the challenger and Republicans in general.

Poll numbers remain strong, yet Christie is now polling under 50% and probably won't see the magic number of 51% again in this campaign unless Daggett collapses.

The corruption sting set the tone of the summer as Democrats finally realized the candidate at the top of the ticket is in serious trouble and will be the first Democrat to lose a statewide campaign in 12 years.

While Weinberg is a qualified candidate for Lt Governor unlike Guadagno, she brings little excitement or even Bergen County to the table for that matter. Both choices cancel each other out.

Daggett's choice for LG was equally uninspiring or effective in terms of switching or gaining any votes. The mere fact he picked an Italian will probably help if he can gain some real traction in September with a plan that makes sense.

Christie's handlers seem more than content to keep the Lonegan crowd alienated and discontent. I find it amazing that Team Christie would rather lose than even recognize Lonegan and the 42% he received in the primary.

I guess they believe they have nowhere else to go...

What amazes me about Christie is that he's not concentrating on the areas he needs to win:

* Bergen County
* District 36
* Suburban West Essex
* Suburban Union
* Suburban Camden and Salem counties

Why is he campaigning in Jersey City?

On the other hand you have Corzine's cadre of consultants running just a plethora of negative ads without once telling anyone what this man has done in 8 years of public life in the US Senate or the governor's office!

Factually speaking, Corzine has cut the size of state government but refuses to even acknowledge this as an accomplishment! He could very effectively run to the right of a one-term freeholder who couldn't get himself re-nominated much less re-elected in the very red county of Morris!

Christie has failed to link himself or even associate himself with this organic, grass roots opposition to government healthcare that has motivated tens of thousands to town halls all over the state!

Did Christie even attend one?

So as the summer wind frosts into the fall campaign, Chris Christie has pretty much sat on a shrinking lead while Corzine has obsessively attacked Chris on loans, car accidents and traffic stops.

Conventional wisdom says the Roberts exit from the speakership has everything to do with internal polling suggesting a Christie rout and possible GOP takeover of the general assembly. Other claim, don't worry, we'll pull this out when it counts.

Since Chris Christie seems satisfied to turn Paul Mulshine into his version of Sista Solja, will Daggett's presence pull eqaully from both or truly hurt Christie in his bread basket counties of Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon and Middlesex?

Will Corzine win anything beyond Hudson, Essex, Passaic, Camden and Union counties?

Christie has been a front-runner for 9 months. Do the championship rounds of September, October and three days in November become this man's political Waterloo?

Vote Column "A" - All the way!

Wake-Up Call

Morning News Digest: March 19, 2010

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Wally Edge

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